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Sea-level projections using a NARX-NN model of tide gauge data for the coastal city of Kuala Terengganu in Malaysia

Journal Article


Abstract


  • The impact of global warming presents an increased risk to the world���s shorelines. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) reported that the twenty-first century experienced a severe global mean sea-level rise due to human-induced climate change. Therefore, coastal planners require reasonably accurate estimates of the rate of sea-level rise and the potential impacts, including extreme sea-level changes, floods, and shoreline erosion. Also, land loss as a result of disturbance of shoreline is of interest as it damages properties and infrastructure. Using a nonlinear autoregressive network with an exogenous input (NARX) model, this study attempted to simulate (1991 to 2012) and predict (2013���2020) sea-level change along Merang kechil to Kuala Marang in Terengganu state shoreline areas. The simulation results show a rising trend with a maximum rate of 28.73��mm/year and an average of about 8.81��mm/year. In comparison, the prediction results show a rising sea level with a maximum rate of 79.26��mm/year and an average of about 25.34��mm/year. The database generated from this study can be used to inform shoreline defense strategies adapting to sea-level rise, flood, and erosion. Scientists can forecast sea-level increases beyond 2020 using simulated sea-level data up to 2020 and apply it for future research. The data also helps decision-makers choose measures for vulnerable shoreline settlements to adapt to sea-level rise. Notably, the data will provide essential information for policy development and implementation to facilitate operational decision-making processes for coastal cities.

Publication Date


  • 2022

Citation


  • Bagheri, M., Ibrahim, Z. Z., Wolf, I. D., Akhir, M. F., Talaat, W. I. A. W., & Oryani, B. (2022). Sea-level projections using a NARX-NN model of tide gauge data for the coastal city of Kuala Terengganu in Malaysia. Environmental Science and Pollution Research. doi:10.1007/s11356-022-21662-4

Scopus Eid


  • 2-s2.0-85133466824

Web Of Science Accession Number


Volume


Issue


Place Of Publication


Abstract


  • The impact of global warming presents an increased risk to the world���s shorelines. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) reported that the twenty-first century experienced a severe global mean sea-level rise due to human-induced climate change. Therefore, coastal planners require reasonably accurate estimates of the rate of sea-level rise and the potential impacts, including extreme sea-level changes, floods, and shoreline erosion. Also, land loss as a result of disturbance of shoreline is of interest as it damages properties and infrastructure. Using a nonlinear autoregressive network with an exogenous input (NARX) model, this study attempted to simulate (1991 to 2012) and predict (2013���2020) sea-level change along Merang kechil to Kuala Marang in Terengganu state shoreline areas. The simulation results show a rising trend with a maximum rate of 28.73��mm/year and an average of about 8.81��mm/year. In comparison, the prediction results show a rising sea level with a maximum rate of 79.26��mm/year and an average of about 25.34��mm/year. The database generated from this study can be used to inform shoreline defense strategies adapting to sea-level rise, flood, and erosion. Scientists can forecast sea-level increases beyond 2020 using simulated sea-level data up to 2020 and apply it for future research. The data also helps decision-makers choose measures for vulnerable shoreline settlements to adapt to sea-level rise. Notably, the data will provide essential information for policy development and implementation to facilitate operational decision-making processes for coastal cities.

Publication Date


  • 2022

Citation


  • Bagheri, M., Ibrahim, Z. Z., Wolf, I. D., Akhir, M. F., Talaat, W. I. A. W., & Oryani, B. (2022). Sea-level projections using a NARX-NN model of tide gauge data for the coastal city of Kuala Terengganu in Malaysia. Environmental Science and Pollution Research. doi:10.1007/s11356-022-21662-4

Scopus Eid


  • 2-s2.0-85133466824

Web Of Science Accession Number


Volume


Issue


Place Of Publication