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Smoke health costs and the calculus for wildfires fuel management: a modelling study.

Journal Article


Abstract


  • Background

    Smoke from uncontrolled wildfires and deliberately set prescribed burns has the potential to produce substantial population exposure to fine particulate matter (PM2·5). We aimed to estimate historical health costs attributable to smoke-related PM2·5 from all landscape fires combined, and the relative contributions from wildfires and prescribed burns, in New South Wales, Australia.

    Methods

    We quantified PM2·5 from all landscape fire smoke (LFS) and estimated the attributable health burden and daily health costs between July 1, 2000, and June 30, 2020, for all of New South Wales and by smaller geographical regions. We combined these results with a spatial database of landscape fires to estimate the relative total and per hectare health costs attributable to PM2·5 from wildfire smoke (WFS) and prescribed burning smoke (PBS).

    Findings

    We estimated health costs of AU$ 2013 million (95% CI 718-3354; calculated with the 2018 value of the AU$). $1653 million (82·1%) of costs were attributable to WFS and $361 million (17·9%) to PBS. The per hectare health cost was of $105 for all LFS days ($104 for WFS and $477 for PBS). In sensitivity analyses, the per hectare costs associated with PBS was consistently higher than for WFS under a range of different scenarios.

    Interpretation

    WFS and PBS produce substantial health costs. Total health costs are higher for WFS, but per hectare costs are higher for PBS. This should be considered when assessing the trade-offs between prescribed burns and wildfires.

    Funding

    None.

Publication Date


  • 2021

Citation


  • Borchers-Arriagada, N., Bowman, D. M. J. S., Price, O., Palmer, A. J., Samson, S., Clarke, H., . . . Johnston, F. H. (2021). Smoke health costs and the calculus for wildfires fuel management: a modelling study.. The Lancet. Planetary health, 5(9), e608-e619. doi:10.1016/s2542-5196(21)00198-4

Web Of Science Accession Number


Start Page


  • e608

End Page


  • e619

Volume


  • 5

Issue


  • 9

Abstract


  • Background

    Smoke from uncontrolled wildfires and deliberately set prescribed burns has the potential to produce substantial population exposure to fine particulate matter (PM2·5). We aimed to estimate historical health costs attributable to smoke-related PM2·5 from all landscape fires combined, and the relative contributions from wildfires and prescribed burns, in New South Wales, Australia.

    Methods

    We quantified PM2·5 from all landscape fire smoke (LFS) and estimated the attributable health burden and daily health costs between July 1, 2000, and June 30, 2020, for all of New South Wales and by smaller geographical regions. We combined these results with a spatial database of landscape fires to estimate the relative total and per hectare health costs attributable to PM2·5 from wildfire smoke (WFS) and prescribed burning smoke (PBS).

    Findings

    We estimated health costs of AU$ 2013 million (95% CI 718-3354; calculated with the 2018 value of the AU$). $1653 million (82·1%) of costs were attributable to WFS and $361 million (17·9%) to PBS. The per hectare health cost was of $105 for all LFS days ($104 for WFS and $477 for PBS). In sensitivity analyses, the per hectare costs associated with PBS was consistently higher than for WFS under a range of different scenarios.

    Interpretation

    WFS and PBS produce substantial health costs. Total health costs are higher for WFS, but per hectare costs are higher for PBS. This should be considered when assessing the trade-offs between prescribed burns and wildfires.

    Funding

    None.

Publication Date


  • 2021

Citation


  • Borchers-Arriagada, N., Bowman, D. M. J. S., Price, O., Palmer, A. J., Samson, S., Clarke, H., . . . Johnston, F. H. (2021). Smoke health costs and the calculus for wildfires fuel management: a modelling study.. The Lancet. Planetary health, 5(9), e608-e619. doi:10.1016/s2542-5196(21)00198-4

Web Of Science Accession Number


Start Page


  • e608

End Page


  • e619

Volume


  • 5

Issue


  • 9