Abstract
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A vast body of literature suggests that the European Alpine Region is amongst the most sensitive socioecosystems
to climate change impacts. Our model represents the winter tourism socio-ecosystem of
Auronzo di Cadore, located in the Dolomites (Italy), which economic and environmental conditions are
highly vulnerable to climate variations. This agent-based model includes eight types of agents corresponding
to different winter tourist profiles based on their socio-economic background and activity
targets. The model is calibrated with empirical data while results are authenticated through direct
interaction of local stakeholders with the model. The model is then used for assessing three hypothetical
and contrasted infrastructure-oriented adaptation strategies for the winter tourism industry, that have
been previously discussed with local stakeholders, as possible alternatives to the “business-as-usual”
situation. These strategies are tested against multiple future scenarios that include: (a) future weather
conditions in terms of snow cover and temperature, (b) the future composition and total number of
tourists and (c) the type of market competition. A set of socio-economic indicators, which are strongly
coupled with relevant environmental consequences, are considered in order to draw conclusions on the
robustness of the selected strategies.