A spatial agent-based model for assessing strategies of adaptation to climate and tourism demand changes in an alpine tourism destination

A vast body of literature suggests that the European Alpine Region is amongst the most sensitive socioecosystems

to climate change impacts. Our model represents the winter tourism socio-ecosystem of

Auronzo di Cadore, located in the Dolomites (Italy), which economic and environmental conditions are

highly vulnerable to climate variations. This agent-based model includes eight types of agents corresponding

to different winter tourist profiles based on their socio-economic background and activity

targets. The model is calibrated with empirical data while results are authenticated through direct

interaction of local stakeholders with the model. The model is then used for assessing three hypothetical

and contrasted infrastructure-oriented adaptation strategies for the winter tourism industry, that have

been previously discussed with local stakeholders, as possible alternatives to the “business-as-usual”

situation. These strategies are tested against multiple future scenarios that include: (a) future weather

conditions in terms of snow cover and temperature, (b) the future composition and total number of

tourists and (c) the type of market competition. A set of socio-economic indicators, which are strongly

coupled with relevant environmental consequences, are considered in order to draw conclusions on the

robustness of the selected strategies.