Assessing the likelihood of realizing idealized goals: the case of urban water strategies

Journal Article


Abstract


  • Urban water management can be challenging, but in Small Island Developing States it is particularly

    difficult due to resource constraints and isolation. This is the situation in the town of Tarawa in Kiribati,

    where attempts to improve water services have often not led to the desired outcomes. The reasons are

    varied, and include widely a lack of consideration of local circumstances, process requirements, and

    inadequate involvement of affected stakeholders, and inadequate cross-sectoral coordination. In light of

    the tendency in urban water planning to assume only the idealized performance of strategies, the

    authors argue that there is a need to also formally consider the likelihood of realizing this idealized

    performance. It is difficult to assess such likelihoods, other than via the use of judgments by expert and

    local stakeholders. Such judgments are typically qualitative and fairly abstract and often not directly

    concerning a particular strategy. The current paper provides a methodology to assess the likelihood of

    the idealized performance of strategies, based on Bayesian Networks (BNs) and Subjective Logic (SL)

    utilizing expert and local knowledge, creating a capacity to capture and apply previous experiences, and

    dispersed knowledge in decision making and planning. The methodology has been developed and tested

    on water management strategies in the town of Tarawa, Kiribati. As such, this paper provides a method

    for mapping the causal explanations for why developments do not achieve their set goals, and the

    approach may form the basis for assessments to be more widely applied when evaluating urban water

    strategies in similar contexts. In this paper, the approach has been applied by using existing data from

    interviews and literature to evaluate one strategy, reserve extensions and groundwater extraction. Other

    strategies, i.e. rainwater harvesting, desalination and have also been evaluated but have not been

    described in this paper because of limited space.

    2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Authors


  •   Moglia, Magnus (external author)
  •   Perez, Pascal
  •   Burn, Stewart (external author)

Publication Date


  • 2012

Citation


  • Moglia, M., Perez, P. & Burn, S. (2012). Assessing the likelihood of realizing idealized goals: the case of urban water strategies. Environmental Modelling and Software, 35 (2012), 50-60.

Ro Metadata Url


  • http://ro.uow.edu.au/smartpapers/97

Number Of Pages


  • 10

Start Page


  • 50

End Page


  • 60

Volume


  • 35

Issue


  • 2012

Place Of Publication


  • www.elsevier/com/locate/envsoft

Abstract


  • Urban water management can be challenging, but in Small Island Developing States it is particularly

    difficult due to resource constraints and isolation. This is the situation in the town of Tarawa in Kiribati,

    where attempts to improve water services have often not led to the desired outcomes. The reasons are

    varied, and include widely a lack of consideration of local circumstances, process requirements, and

    inadequate involvement of affected stakeholders, and inadequate cross-sectoral coordination. In light of

    the tendency in urban water planning to assume only the idealized performance of strategies, the

    authors argue that there is a need to also formally consider the likelihood of realizing this idealized

    performance. It is difficult to assess such likelihoods, other than via the use of judgments by expert and

    local stakeholders. Such judgments are typically qualitative and fairly abstract and often not directly

    concerning a particular strategy. The current paper provides a methodology to assess the likelihood of

    the idealized performance of strategies, based on Bayesian Networks (BNs) and Subjective Logic (SL)

    utilizing expert and local knowledge, creating a capacity to capture and apply previous experiences, and

    dispersed knowledge in decision making and planning. The methodology has been developed and tested

    on water management strategies in the town of Tarawa, Kiribati. As such, this paper provides a method

    for mapping the causal explanations for why developments do not achieve their set goals, and the

    approach may form the basis for assessments to be more widely applied when evaluating urban water

    strategies in similar contexts. In this paper, the approach has been applied by using existing data from

    interviews and literature to evaluate one strategy, reserve extensions and groundwater extraction. Other

    strategies, i.e. rainwater harvesting, desalination and have also been evaluated but have not been

    described in this paper because of limited space.

    2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Authors


  •   Moglia, Magnus (external author)
  •   Perez, Pascal
  •   Burn, Stewart (external author)

Publication Date


  • 2012

Citation


  • Moglia, M., Perez, P. & Burn, S. (2012). Assessing the likelihood of realizing idealized goals: the case of urban water strategies. Environmental Modelling and Software, 35 (2012), 50-60.

Ro Metadata Url


  • http://ro.uow.edu.au/smartpapers/97

Number Of Pages


  • 10

Start Page


  • 50

End Page


  • 60

Volume


  • 35

Issue


  • 2012

Place Of Publication


  • www.elsevier/com/locate/envsoft