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A spatial agent-based model to explore scenarios of adaptation to climate change in an alpine tourism destination

Conference Paper


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Abstract


  • A vast body of literature suggests that the European Alpine region may be one of the

    most sensitive to climate change impacts. Adaptation to climate change of Alpine socioecosystems

    is increasingly becoming an issue of interest for the scientific community while the

    people of the Alps are often unaware of or simply ignore the problem. ClimAlpTour is a

    European research project of the Alpine Space Programme, bringing together institutions and

    scholars from all countries of the Alpine arch, in view of dealing with the expected decrease in

    snow and ice cover, which may lead to a rethinking of tourism development beyond the

    traditional vision of winter sports. The research reported herein analyses the municipality of

    Auronzo di Cadore (22,000 ha) in the Dolomites under the famous peaks of the “Tre Cime di

    Lavaredo”. The local economy depends on tourism which is currently focused on the summer

    season, while the winter season is weak. Since recently the Community Council is considering

    options on how to stimulate a further development of the winter tourism. This paper refers to a

    prototype agent-based model, called AuronzoWinSim, for the assessment of alternative

    scenarios of future local development strategies, taking into account complex spatial and social

    dynamics and interactions. Different typologies of winter tourists compose the set of human

    agents. Climate change scenarios are used to produce temperature and snow cover projections.

    The model is mainly informed by secondary sources, including demographic and economic

    time series, and biophysical data which feed-in its spatial dimension. Primary data from field

    surveys are used to calibrate the main parameters. AuronzoWinSim is planned for use in a

    participatory context with groups of local stakeholders.

Authors


  •   Balbi, Stefano (external author)
  •   Perez, Pascal
  •   Giupponi, Carlo (external author)

Publication Date


  • 2010

Citation


  • Balbi, S., Perez, P. & Giupponi, C. (2010). A spatial agent-based model to explore scenarios of adaptation to climate change in an alpine tourism destination. In A. Ernst & S. Kuhn (Eds.), 3rd World Congress on Social Simulation

Scopus Eid


  • 2-s2.0-84858685365

Ro Full-text Url


  • http://ro.uow.edu.au/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=1014&context=smartpapers

Ro Metadata Url


  • http://ro.uow.edu.au/smartpapers/9

Place Of Publication


  • www.wcss2010.org

Abstract


  • A vast body of literature suggests that the European Alpine region may be one of the

    most sensitive to climate change impacts. Adaptation to climate change of Alpine socioecosystems

    is increasingly becoming an issue of interest for the scientific community while the

    people of the Alps are often unaware of or simply ignore the problem. ClimAlpTour is a

    European research project of the Alpine Space Programme, bringing together institutions and

    scholars from all countries of the Alpine arch, in view of dealing with the expected decrease in

    snow and ice cover, which may lead to a rethinking of tourism development beyond the

    traditional vision of winter sports. The research reported herein analyses the municipality of

    Auronzo di Cadore (22,000 ha) in the Dolomites under the famous peaks of the “Tre Cime di

    Lavaredo”. The local economy depends on tourism which is currently focused on the summer

    season, while the winter season is weak. Since recently the Community Council is considering

    options on how to stimulate a further development of the winter tourism. This paper refers to a

    prototype agent-based model, called AuronzoWinSim, for the assessment of alternative

    scenarios of future local development strategies, taking into account complex spatial and social

    dynamics and interactions. Different typologies of winter tourists compose the set of human

    agents. Climate change scenarios are used to produce temperature and snow cover projections.

    The model is mainly informed by secondary sources, including demographic and economic

    time series, and biophysical data which feed-in its spatial dimension. Primary data from field

    surveys are used to calibrate the main parameters. AuronzoWinSim is planned for use in a

    participatory context with groups of local stakeholders.

Authors


  •   Balbi, Stefano (external author)
  •   Perez, Pascal
  •   Giupponi, Carlo (external author)

Publication Date


  • 2010

Citation


  • Balbi, S., Perez, P. & Giupponi, C. (2010). A spatial agent-based model to explore scenarios of adaptation to climate change in an alpine tourism destination. In A. Ernst & S. Kuhn (Eds.), 3rd World Congress on Social Simulation

Scopus Eid


  • 2-s2.0-84858685365

Ro Full-text Url


  • http://ro.uow.edu.au/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=1014&context=smartpapers

Ro Metadata Url


  • http://ro.uow.edu.au/smartpapers/9

Place Of Publication


  • www.wcss2010.org