Abstract
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An agent-based simulation model has been
developed with CORMAS combining
simplified bio-physical processes of land cover,
dry-land salinity changes, rainfall, farm
profitability and farmer decisions on land uses
in a dry-land agricultural catchment (no
irrigation). Simulated farmers formulate
individual decisions dealing with land use
changes based on the combined performance
of their past land cover productivity and
market returns. The willingness to adapt to
market drivers and the ability to maximize
returns varies across farmers. In addition,
farmers in the model can demonstrate various
attitudes towards salinity mitigation as a
consequence of experiencing and perceiving
salinity on their farm, in the neighborhood or in
the entire region. Consequently, farmers can
adopt land cover strategies aiming at reducing
salinity impact. The simulation results using
historical rainfall records reproduces similar
trends of crop-pasture ratios, salinity change
and farm decline as observed in the last 20 years
in the Katanning catchment (Western
Australia). Using the model as an explorative
tool for future scenarios, the simulation results
highlighted the importance of rainfall changes
and wide-spread willingness of farmers to
combat dry-land salinity. Rainfall changes as a
consequence of climate change can lead to
prolonged sequences of dry and wet seasons.
Adaptation to these sequences by farmers seems
to be critical for farm survival in this catchment.