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Dynamics of a salinity-prone agricultural catchment driven by markets, farmers’ attitudes and climate change

Conference Paper


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Abstract


  • An agent-based simulation model has been

    developed with CORMAS combining

    simplified bio-physical processes of land cover,

    dry-land salinity changes, rainfall, farm

    profitability and farmer decisions on land uses

    in a dry-land agricultural catchment (no

    irrigation). Simulated farmers formulate

    individual decisions dealing with land use

    changes based on the combined performance

    of their past land cover productivity and

    market returns. The willingness to adapt to

    market drivers and the ability to maximize

    returns varies across farmers. In addition,

    farmers in the model can demonstrate various

    attitudes towards salinity mitigation as a

    consequence of experiencing and perceiving

    salinity on their farm, in the neighborhood or in

    the entire region. Consequently, farmers can

    adopt land cover strategies aiming at reducing

    salinity impact. The simulation results using

    historical rainfall records reproduces similar

    trends of crop-pasture ratios, salinity change

    and farm decline as observed in the last 20 years

    in the Katanning catchment (Western

    Australia). Using the model as an explorative

    tool for future scenarios, the simulation results

    highlighted the importance of rainfall changes

    and wide-spread willingness of farmers to

    combat dry-land salinity. Rainfall changes as a

    consequence of climate change can lead to

    prolonged sequences of dry and wet seasons.

    Adaptation to these sequences by farmers seems

    to be critical for farm survival in this catchment.

Authors


  •   Asseng, S (external author)
  •   Dray, Anne (external author)
  •   Perez, Pascal
  •   Su, X (external author)
  •   Muller, J P.. (external author)

Publication Date


  • 2007

Citation


  • Asseng, S., Dray, A., Perez, P., Su, X. & Muller, J. P. (2007). Dynamics of a salinity-prone agricultural catchment driven by markets, farmers’ attitudes and climate change. In L. Oxley & D. Kulasiri (Eds.), MODSIM 2007 International Congress on Modelling and Simulation (pp. 32-38). Modelling and Simulation Society of Australia and New Zealand.

Ro Full-text Url


  • http://ro.uow.edu.au/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=1082&context=smartpapers

Ro Metadata Url


  • http://ro.uow.edu.au/smartpapers/55

Start Page


  • 32

End Page


  • 38

Place Of Publication


  • http://www.mssanz.org.au/MODSIM07/papers/1_s5/DynamicsOfASas5_Asseng.pdf

Abstract


  • An agent-based simulation model has been

    developed with CORMAS combining

    simplified bio-physical processes of land cover,

    dry-land salinity changes, rainfall, farm

    profitability and farmer decisions on land uses

    in a dry-land agricultural catchment (no

    irrigation). Simulated farmers formulate

    individual decisions dealing with land use

    changes based on the combined performance

    of their past land cover productivity and

    market returns. The willingness to adapt to

    market drivers and the ability to maximize

    returns varies across farmers. In addition,

    farmers in the model can demonstrate various

    attitudes towards salinity mitigation as a

    consequence of experiencing and perceiving

    salinity on their farm, in the neighborhood or in

    the entire region. Consequently, farmers can

    adopt land cover strategies aiming at reducing

    salinity impact. The simulation results using

    historical rainfall records reproduces similar

    trends of crop-pasture ratios, salinity change

    and farm decline as observed in the last 20 years

    in the Katanning catchment (Western

    Australia). Using the model as an explorative

    tool for future scenarios, the simulation results

    highlighted the importance of rainfall changes

    and wide-spread willingness of farmers to

    combat dry-land salinity. Rainfall changes as a

    consequence of climate change can lead to

    prolonged sequences of dry and wet seasons.

    Adaptation to these sequences by farmers seems

    to be critical for farm survival in this catchment.

Authors


  •   Asseng, S (external author)
  •   Dray, Anne (external author)
  •   Perez, Pascal
  •   Su, X (external author)
  •   Muller, J P.. (external author)

Publication Date


  • 2007

Citation


  • Asseng, S., Dray, A., Perez, P., Su, X. & Muller, J. P. (2007). Dynamics of a salinity-prone agricultural catchment driven by markets, farmers’ attitudes and climate change. In L. Oxley & D. Kulasiri (Eds.), MODSIM 2007 International Congress on Modelling and Simulation (pp. 32-38). Modelling and Simulation Society of Australia and New Zealand.

Ro Full-text Url


  • http://ro.uow.edu.au/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=1082&context=smartpapers

Ro Metadata Url


  • http://ro.uow.edu.au/smartpapers/55

Start Page


  • 32

End Page


  • 38

Place Of Publication


  • http://www.mssanz.org.au/MODSIM07/papers/1_s5/DynamicsOfASas5_Asseng.pdf