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Using estimated probability of pre-diagnosis behavior as a predictor of cancer survival time: an example in esophageal cancer

Journal Article


Abstract


  • BACKGROUND: Information on the associations between pre-diagnosis health behavior and post-diagnosis survival time in esophageal cancer could assist in planning health services but can be difficult to obtain using established study designs. We postulated that, with a large data set, using estimated probability for a behavior as a predictor of survival times could provide useful insight as to the impact of actual behavior. METHODS: Data from a national health survey and logistic regression were used to calculate the probability of selected health behaviors from participant's demographic characteristics for each esophageal cancer case within a large cancer registry data base. The associations between survival time and the probability of the health behaviors were investigated using Cox regression. RESULTS: Observed associations include: a 0.1 increase in the probability of smoking 1 year prior to diagnosis was detrimental to survival (Hazard Ratio (HR) 1.21, 95% CI 1.19,1.23); a 0.1 increase in the probability of hazardous alcohol consumption 10 years prior to diagnosis was associated with decreased survival in squamous cell cancer (HR 1.29, 95% CI 1.07, 1.56) but not adenocarcinoma (HR 1.08, 95% CI 0.94,1.25); a 0.1 increase in the probability of physical activity outside the workplace is protective (HR 0.83, 95% CI 0.81,0.84). CONCLUSIONS: We conclude that probability for health behavior estimated from demographic characteristics can provide an initial assessment of the association between pre-diagnosis health behavior and post-diagnosis health outcomes, allowing some sharing of information across otherwise unrelated data collections.

Authors


  •   Fahey, Paul P. (external author)
  •   Page, Andrew (external author)
  •   Stone, Glenn (external author)
  •   Astell-Burt, Thomas E.

Publication Date


  • 2020

Citation


  • Fahey, P. P., Page, A., Stone, G. & Astell-Burt, T. (2020). Using estimated probability of pre-diagnosis behavior as a predictor of cancer survival time: an example in esophageal cancer. BMC medical research methodology, 20 (1), 74-1-74-9.

Scopus Eid


  • 2-s2.0-85083003492

Start Page


  • 74-1

End Page


  • 74-9

Volume


  • 20

Issue


  • 1

Place Of Publication


  • United Kingdom

Abstract


  • BACKGROUND: Information on the associations between pre-diagnosis health behavior and post-diagnosis survival time in esophageal cancer could assist in planning health services but can be difficult to obtain using established study designs. We postulated that, with a large data set, using estimated probability for a behavior as a predictor of survival times could provide useful insight as to the impact of actual behavior. METHODS: Data from a national health survey and logistic regression were used to calculate the probability of selected health behaviors from participant's demographic characteristics for each esophageal cancer case within a large cancer registry data base. The associations between survival time and the probability of the health behaviors were investigated using Cox regression. RESULTS: Observed associations include: a 0.1 increase in the probability of smoking 1 year prior to diagnosis was detrimental to survival (Hazard Ratio (HR) 1.21, 95% CI 1.19,1.23); a 0.1 increase in the probability of hazardous alcohol consumption 10 years prior to diagnosis was associated with decreased survival in squamous cell cancer (HR 1.29, 95% CI 1.07, 1.56) but not adenocarcinoma (HR 1.08, 95% CI 0.94,1.25); a 0.1 increase in the probability of physical activity outside the workplace is protective (HR 0.83, 95% CI 0.81,0.84). CONCLUSIONS: We conclude that probability for health behavior estimated from demographic characteristics can provide an initial assessment of the association between pre-diagnosis health behavior and post-diagnosis health outcomes, allowing some sharing of information across otherwise unrelated data collections.

Authors


  •   Fahey, Paul P. (external author)
  •   Page, Andrew (external author)
  •   Stone, Glenn (external author)
  •   Astell-Burt, Thomas E.

Publication Date


  • 2020

Citation


  • Fahey, P. P., Page, A., Stone, G. & Astell-Burt, T. (2020). Using estimated probability of pre-diagnosis behavior as a predictor of cancer survival time: an example in esophageal cancer. BMC medical research methodology, 20 (1), 74-1-74-9.

Scopus Eid


  • 2-s2.0-85083003492

Start Page


  • 74-1

End Page


  • 74-9

Volume


  • 20

Issue


  • 1

Place Of Publication


  • United Kingdom