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Minimum founding populations for the first peopling of Sahul

Journal Article


Abstract


  • The timing, context and nature of the first people to enter Sahul is still poorly understood owing to a fragmented archaeological record. However, quantifying the plausible demographic context of this founding population is essential to determine how and why the initial peopling of Sahul occurred. We developed a stochastic, age-structured model using demographic rates from hunter-gatherer societies, and relative carrying capacity hindcasted with LOVECLIM’s net primary productivity for northern Sahul. We projected these populations to determine the resilience and minimum sizes required to avoid extinction. A census founding population of between 1,300 and 1,550 individuals was necessary to maintain a quasi-extinction threshold of ≲0.1. This minimum founding population could have arrived at a single point in time, or through multiple voyages of ≥130 people over ~700–900 years. This result shows that substantial population amalgamation in Sunda and Wallacea in Marine Isotope Stages 3–4 provided the conditions for the successful, large-scale and probably planned peopling of Sahul.

Authors


  •   Bradshaw, Corey J. A. (external author)
  •   Ulm, Sean (external author)
  •   Williams, Alan (external author)
  •   Bird, Michael I. (external author)
  •   Roberts, Richard G.
  •   Jacobs, Zenobia
  •   Laviano, Fiona (external author)
  •   Weyrich, Laura S. (external author)
  •   Friedrich, Tobias (external author)
  •   Norman, Kasih (external author)
  •   Saltréa, Frédérik (external author)

Publication Date


  • 2019

Citation


  • Bradshaw, C. J.A., Ulm, S., Williams, A. N., Bird, M. I., Roberts, R. G., Jacobs, Z., Laviano, F., Weyrich, L. S., Friedrich, T., Norman, K. & Saltre, F. (2019). Minimum founding populations for the first peopling of Sahul. Nature Ecology and Evolution, 3 1057-1063.

Scopus Eid


  • 2-s2.0-85067516712

Ro Metadata Url


  • http://ro.uow.edu.au/smhpapers1/801

Number Of Pages


  • 6

Start Page


  • 1057

End Page


  • 1063

Volume


  • 3

Place Of Publication


  • United Kingdom

Abstract


  • The timing, context and nature of the first people to enter Sahul is still poorly understood owing to a fragmented archaeological record. However, quantifying the plausible demographic context of this founding population is essential to determine how and why the initial peopling of Sahul occurred. We developed a stochastic, age-structured model using demographic rates from hunter-gatherer societies, and relative carrying capacity hindcasted with LOVECLIM’s net primary productivity for northern Sahul. We projected these populations to determine the resilience and minimum sizes required to avoid extinction. A census founding population of between 1,300 and 1,550 individuals was necessary to maintain a quasi-extinction threshold of ≲0.1. This minimum founding population could have arrived at a single point in time, or through multiple voyages of ≥130 people over ~700–900 years. This result shows that substantial population amalgamation in Sunda and Wallacea in Marine Isotope Stages 3–4 provided the conditions for the successful, large-scale and probably planned peopling of Sahul.

Authors


  •   Bradshaw, Corey J. A. (external author)
  •   Ulm, Sean (external author)
  •   Williams, Alan (external author)
  •   Bird, Michael I. (external author)
  •   Roberts, Richard G.
  •   Jacobs, Zenobia
  •   Laviano, Fiona (external author)
  •   Weyrich, Laura S. (external author)
  •   Friedrich, Tobias (external author)
  •   Norman, Kasih (external author)
  •   Saltréa, Frédérik (external author)

Publication Date


  • 2019

Citation


  • Bradshaw, C. J.A., Ulm, S., Williams, A. N., Bird, M. I., Roberts, R. G., Jacobs, Z., Laviano, F., Weyrich, L. S., Friedrich, T., Norman, K. & Saltre, F. (2019). Minimum founding populations for the first peopling of Sahul. Nature Ecology and Evolution, 3 1057-1063.

Scopus Eid


  • 2-s2.0-85067516712

Ro Metadata Url


  • http://ro.uow.edu.au/smhpapers1/801

Number Of Pages


  • 6

Start Page


  • 1057

End Page


  • 1063

Volume


  • 3

Place Of Publication


  • United Kingdom