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Racial Segregation in the United States since the Great Depression: A Dynamic Segregation Approach

Journal Article


Abstract


  • Racial segregation is a salient feature of cities in the United States. Models like Schelling (1971)

    show that segregation can arise through white preferences for residing near minorities. Once the

    threshold or “tipping point” is passed, the models predict that all whites will leave. Our paper uses

    census-tract data for six cities in the United States from the 1930s and 1970-2010 to measure

    decadal, city-specific tipping points. We use a structural break procedure to estimate the tipping

    points and incorporate these in a regression-discontinuity design to estimate the impact on

    population trends for neighborhoods that exceed that threshold while controlling for city-specific

    trends in migration. We find that the magnitude of white flight for neighborhoods that have tipped

    in 2000 has fallen to between 23 and 36 percent of the level seen in 1970. There was no

    discontinuity in white flight after accounting for migration trends during the Great Depression.

    Finally, we show that in-migration of minorities in tipped neighborhoods do not fill in the gap left by white flight.

UOW Authors


  •   Kollmann, Trevor (external author)
  •   Marsiglio, Simone (external author)
  •   Suardi, Sandy

Publication Date


  • 2018

Citation


  • Kollmann, T., Marsiglio, S. & Suardi, S. (2018). Racial Segregation in the United States since the Great Depression: A Dynamic Segregation Approach. Journal of Housing Economics, 40 95-116.

Scopus Eid


  • 2-s2.0-85045041846

Ro Metadata Url


  • http://ro.uow.edu.au/buspapers/1430

Number Of Pages


  • 21

Start Page


  • 95

End Page


  • 116

Volume


  • 40

Place Of Publication


  • United States

Abstract


  • Racial segregation is a salient feature of cities in the United States. Models like Schelling (1971)

    show that segregation can arise through white preferences for residing near minorities. Once the

    threshold or “tipping point” is passed, the models predict that all whites will leave. Our paper uses

    census-tract data for six cities in the United States from the 1930s and 1970-2010 to measure

    decadal, city-specific tipping points. We use a structural break procedure to estimate the tipping

    points and incorporate these in a regression-discontinuity design to estimate the impact on

    population trends for neighborhoods that exceed that threshold while controlling for city-specific

    trends in migration. We find that the magnitude of white flight for neighborhoods that have tipped

    in 2000 has fallen to between 23 and 36 percent of the level seen in 1970. There was no

    discontinuity in white flight after accounting for migration trends during the Great Depression.

    Finally, we show that in-migration of minorities in tipped neighborhoods do not fill in the gap left by white flight.

UOW Authors


  •   Kollmann, Trevor (external author)
  •   Marsiglio, Simone (external author)
  •   Suardi, Sandy

Publication Date


  • 2018

Citation


  • Kollmann, T., Marsiglio, S. & Suardi, S. (2018). Racial Segregation in the United States since the Great Depression: A Dynamic Segregation Approach. Journal of Housing Economics, 40 95-116.

Scopus Eid


  • 2-s2.0-85045041846

Ro Metadata Url


  • http://ro.uow.edu.au/buspapers/1430

Number Of Pages


  • 21

Start Page


  • 95

End Page


  • 116

Volume


  • 40

Place Of Publication


  • United States