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An investigation of future fuel load and fire weather in Australia

Journal Article


Abstract


  • We present an assessment of the impact of future climate change on two key drivers of

    fire risk in Australia, fire weather and fuel load. Fire weather conditions are represented

    by the McArthur Forest Fire Danger Index (FFDI), calculated from a 12-member

    regional climate model ensemble. Fuel load is predicted from net primary production,

    simulated using a land surface model forced by the same regional climate model

    ensemble. Mean annual fine litter is projected to increase across all ensemble

    members, by 1.2 to 1.7 t ha-1 in temperate areas, 0.3 to 0.5 t ha-1 in grassland areas

    and 0.7 to 1.1 t ha-1 in subtropical areas. Ensemble changes in annual cumulative

    FFDI vary widely, from 57 to 550 in temperate areas, -186 to 1372 in grassland areas

    and -231 to 907 in subtropical areas. These results suggest that uncertainty in FFDI

    projections will be underestimated if only a single driving model is used. The largest

    increases in fuel load and fire weather are projected to occur in spring. Deriving fuel

    load from a land surface model may be possible in other regions, when this information

    is not directly available from climate model outputs.

Authors


  •   Clarke, Hamish
  •   Pitman, Andy (external author)
  •   Kala, Jatin (external author)
  •   Carouge, Claire C. (external author)
  •   Haverd, Vanessa E. (external author)
  •   Evans, Jason P. (external author)

Publication Date


  • 2016

Citation


  • Clarke, H., Pitman, A. J., Kala, J., Carouge, C., Haverd, V. & Evans, J. (2016). An investigation of future fuel load and fire weather in Australia. Climatic Change: an interdisciplinary, international journal devoted to the description, causes and implications of climatic change, 139 (3), 591-605.

Scopus Eid


  • 2-s2.0-84987668089

Ro Metadata Url


  • http://ro.uow.edu.au/smhpapers/4243

Number Of Pages


  • 14

Start Page


  • 591

End Page


  • 605

Volume


  • 139

Issue


  • 3

Abstract


  • We present an assessment of the impact of future climate change on two key drivers of

    fire risk in Australia, fire weather and fuel load. Fire weather conditions are represented

    by the McArthur Forest Fire Danger Index (FFDI), calculated from a 12-member

    regional climate model ensemble. Fuel load is predicted from net primary production,

    simulated using a land surface model forced by the same regional climate model

    ensemble. Mean annual fine litter is projected to increase across all ensemble

    members, by 1.2 to 1.7 t ha-1 in temperate areas, 0.3 to 0.5 t ha-1 in grassland areas

    and 0.7 to 1.1 t ha-1 in subtropical areas. Ensemble changes in annual cumulative

    FFDI vary widely, from 57 to 550 in temperate areas, -186 to 1372 in grassland areas

    and -231 to 907 in subtropical areas. These results suggest that uncertainty in FFDI

    projections will be underestimated if only a single driving model is used. The largest

    increases in fuel load and fire weather are projected to occur in spring. Deriving fuel

    load from a land surface model may be possible in other regions, when this information

    is not directly available from climate model outputs.

Authors


  •   Clarke, Hamish
  •   Pitman, Andy (external author)
  •   Kala, Jatin (external author)
  •   Carouge, Claire C. (external author)
  •   Haverd, Vanessa E. (external author)
  •   Evans, Jason P. (external author)

Publication Date


  • 2016

Citation


  • Clarke, H., Pitman, A. J., Kala, J., Carouge, C., Haverd, V. & Evans, J. (2016). An investigation of future fuel load and fire weather in Australia. Climatic Change: an interdisciplinary, international journal devoted to the description, causes and implications of climatic change, 139 (3), 591-605.

Scopus Eid


  • 2-s2.0-84987668089

Ro Metadata Url


  • http://ro.uow.edu.au/smhpapers/4243

Number Of Pages


  • 14

Start Page


  • 591

End Page


  • 605

Volume


  • 139

Issue


  • 3