I have been a member of the Centre for Environmental Risk Management of Bushfires (CERMB) at UOW since 2016.
I am leading a project on optimising cost-effective prescribed burning as part of the NSW Bushfire Risk Management Research Hub. Before that I led a similar project with the Bushfires and Natural Hazards CRC. I work partly out of the Hawkesbury Institute for the Environment (HIE) at Western Sydney University.
I previously worked as Senior Climate and Atmospheric Scientist at the NSW Office of Environment and Heritage. My research focused on understanding the regional impacts of climate change, particularly on bushfire risk.
I am co-convenor of Science at the Local, a community initiative bringing people and scientists together in the Blue Mountains. I am a former Deputy Chair of the Australian Academy of Science’s Early- and Mid-Career Researcher Forum (EMCR Forum), the voice of Australia’s emerging scientists.
I am interested in the drivers of bushfire risk and the impacts of planned and unplanned fire. My research has to date focused on fire weather and fuel, climate change and prescribed burning.
I am part of the NSW Bushfire Risk Management Research Hub as leader of a project optimising cost-effective prescribed burning. I have also worked on a BNHCRC-funded project that examines the effectiveness of prescribed burning in reducing a range of risks across southern Australia.
I work closely with collaborators at the CERMB, HIE and Bushfire Hub, including Sr Prof Ross Bradstock, Professor Trent Penman (UOM) and Assoc Prof Matthias Boer (WSU).
I am committed to public interest science and collaborative, multidisciplinary projects that engage clients from project conception to completion and beyond.
Proceedings of the 20th International Congress on Modeling and Simulation
Impact
Impact Story
Shining a light on Australian fire weather trends
Bushfires are a part of life in Australia, and fire weather is a critical factor in determining the likelihood of fire starts, the difficulty of controlling fires and their ultimate impacts on people, property and the environment. Our study of trends in the McArthur Forest Fire Danger Index (FFDI) put hard numbers on the nature of fire weather conditions in Australia and how they have changed over the late twentieth century. We showed that despite tremendous fluctuations from year to year across the nation, there was an increasing trend over much of the country. This trend was greatest for at the very highest - and most dangerous - fire weather conditions, with not a single station showing a significant decrease in FFDI over the observational record.<br /><br />The study was widely reported in the press, adopted by the flagship State of the Climate reports issued by the Australian Bureau of Meteorology and CSIRO, and featured in other influential and high profile policy documents such as the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change's Fifth Assessment Report and a series of Australian Climate Council reports on climate change and bushfire in Australia. The study has contributed to a much greater awareness of Australian fire weather conditions among fire managers and the general public. It has also provided a benchmark for researchers and decision makers against which to measure future climate change impacts on fire weather conditions.
<p>Fire managers and researchers have long understood the importance of fire weather in contributing to bushfire risk. Despite this, discussion of fire weather conditions had typically been limited to the scientific literature or the immediate wake of major disasters, and without the context of long term averages and trends. At the same time, there was increasing interest in understanding the regional impacts of climate change. However, this presupposed knowledge of current conditions – averages, extremes, variability and trends. We had this information for temperature and rainfall, but it was lacking for fire weather. High quality records were being kept, but they had not been analysed or publicly communicated.</p><p>We therefore saw clear value in a systematic study of long term trends in Australian fire weather conditions. We analysed daily records of the McArthur Forest Fire Danger Index (FFDI) at 38 stations across Australia with high quality records. We found that from 1973 to 2010, average conditions increased at over one third of stations, and extreme conditions increased at over half of them. Over the same period, not a single station recorded a significant decline in FFDI. Our results painted a picture of increasing fire weather conditions at many locations across Australia, due to both higher FFDI values and a longer fire season.</p><p>Our results were picked up by major media outlets such as ABC News, The Age and Sydney Morning Herald, The Australian and The Guardian. At the time, a debate was raging over climate change and our policy responds (what’s changed?) and these results fed into that discussion. I gave presentations at major scientific conferences (e.g. the Australian Meteorological and Oceanographic Society’s Annual Conference), to land managers (e.g. NSW National Parks and Wildlife Service) and decision makers (e.g. the state’s Emergency Management Climate Change Working Group).</p><p>The findings were subsequently featured in a range of influential and high profile reports and policy documents, including: the bi-annual State of the Climate report issued by the Bureau of Meteorology and CSIRO, the Australian Academy of Science’s The Science of Climate Change booklet, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s Fifth Assessment Report and a series of Australian Climate Council reports on bushfires and climate change. Our results also figured prominently in at least one submission to an Australian Senate Inquiry into extreme weather, by the ARC Centre of Excellence for Climate Systems Science.</p><p>As a result of the study and its reach, there is now a much greater awareness and understanding of Australian fire weather conditions among fire managers, decision makers and the general public. There is also a valuable baseline against which to measure and interpret future climate change impacts on fire weather in Australia.</p>
Beneficiary
Quantification
Description
Evidence
Description
Supervision
Available as Research Supervisor
Potential Supervision Topics
Analysis of trends in extreme fire weather conditions in Australia
Impact of climate change on prescribed burning windows
Classification of fire activity in Australia and evaluation of fire predictions
Current state of global climate change projections of fire weather
Fire prediction at varying time and seasonal scales
Investigation of drivers of cancelled and escaped prescribed burns
Integrating bushfire and climate change impact research into policy and operations
Advisees
Graduate Advising Relationship
Degree
Research Title
Advisee
Doctor of Philosophy
Effects of climate change on resilience of fire prone plant communities
Simpson-Southward, Harriet
Service
Outreach Overview
I am an executive member of the Australian Academy of Science Early- and Mid-Career Researcher (EMCR) Forum. The EMCR Forum aims to be the voice of young scientists in Australia, working to represent them and ensure optimal career structures and opportunities for them. The Forum is active on a number of fronts, including meetings with Ministers and heads of the NHMRC and ARC, preparing submissions to consultations and inquiries, and running Science Pathways, a semi-annual conference for EMCRS.
I am co-founder of Science at the Local, a community science engagement initiative. We run bimonthly events at Springwood in the Blue Mountains, where scientists present and community members get a chance to ask questions and meet like-minded individuals.
Ph.D.
in Climate science,
University of New South Wales,
Climate Change Research Centre,
The impact of climate change on fire weather conditions and fuel load 2010 - 2015
B.Sc.
in Biochemistry & neuroscience,
The University of Sydney,
With First Class Honours and the University Medal 2002 - 2006
Bachelor of Commerce/Bachelor of Arts (Honours)
in Marketing & accounting / German & Spanish,
University of Technology Sydney1997 - 2001
I am interested in the drivers of bushfire risk and the impacts of planned and unplanned fire. My research has to date focused on fire weather and fuel, climate change and prescribed burning.
I am part of the NSW Bushfire Risk Management Research Hub as leader of a project optimising cost-effective prescribed burning. I have also worked on a BNHCRC-funded project that examines the effectiveness of prescribed burning in reducing a range of risks across southern Australia.
I work closely with collaborators at the CERMB, HIE and Bushfire Hub, including Sr Prof Ross Bradstock, Professor Trent Penman (UOM) and Assoc Prof Matthias Boer (WSU).
I am committed to public interest science and collaborative, multidisciplinary projects that engage clients from project conception to completion and beyond.
Proceedings of the 20th International Congress on Modeling and Simulation
Impact
Impact Story
Shining a light on Australian fire weather trends
Bushfires are a part of life in Australia, and fire weather is a critical factor in determining the likelihood of fire starts, the difficulty of controlling fires and their ultimate impacts on people, property and the environment. Our study of trends in the McArthur Forest Fire Danger Index (FFDI) put hard numbers on the nature of fire weather conditions in Australia and how they have changed over the late twentieth century. We showed that despite tremendous fluctuations from year to year across the nation, there was an increasing trend over much of the country. This trend was greatest for at the very highest - and most dangerous - fire weather conditions, with not a single station showing a significant decrease in FFDI over the observational record.<br /><br />The study was widely reported in the press, adopted by the flagship State of the Climate reports issued by the Australian Bureau of Meteorology and CSIRO, and featured in other influential and high profile policy documents such as the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change's Fifth Assessment Report and a series of Australian Climate Council reports on climate change and bushfire in Australia. The study has contributed to a much greater awareness of Australian fire weather conditions among fire managers and the general public. It has also provided a benchmark for researchers and decision makers against which to measure future climate change impacts on fire weather conditions.
<p>Fire managers and researchers have long understood the importance of fire weather in contributing to bushfire risk. Despite this, discussion of fire weather conditions had typically been limited to the scientific literature or the immediate wake of major disasters, and without the context of long term averages and trends. At the same time, there was increasing interest in understanding the regional impacts of climate change. However, this presupposed knowledge of current conditions – averages, extremes, variability and trends. We had this information for temperature and rainfall, but it was lacking for fire weather. High quality records were being kept, but they had not been analysed or publicly communicated.</p><p>We therefore saw clear value in a systematic study of long term trends in Australian fire weather conditions. We analysed daily records of the McArthur Forest Fire Danger Index (FFDI) at 38 stations across Australia with high quality records. We found that from 1973 to 2010, average conditions increased at over one third of stations, and extreme conditions increased at over half of them. Over the same period, not a single station recorded a significant decline in FFDI. Our results painted a picture of increasing fire weather conditions at many locations across Australia, due to both higher FFDI values and a longer fire season.</p><p>Our results were picked up by major media outlets such as ABC News, The Age and Sydney Morning Herald, The Australian and The Guardian. At the time, a debate was raging over climate change and our policy responds (what’s changed?) and these results fed into that discussion. I gave presentations at major scientific conferences (e.g. the Australian Meteorological and Oceanographic Society’s Annual Conference), to land managers (e.g. NSW National Parks and Wildlife Service) and decision makers (e.g. the state’s Emergency Management Climate Change Working Group).</p><p>The findings were subsequently featured in a range of influential and high profile reports and policy documents, including: the bi-annual State of the Climate report issued by the Bureau of Meteorology and CSIRO, the Australian Academy of Science’s The Science of Climate Change booklet, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s Fifth Assessment Report and a series of Australian Climate Council reports on bushfires and climate change. Our results also figured prominently in at least one submission to an Australian Senate Inquiry into extreme weather, by the ARC Centre of Excellence for Climate Systems Science.</p><p>As a result of the study and its reach, there is now a much greater awareness and understanding of Australian fire weather conditions among fire managers, decision makers and the general public. There is also a valuable baseline against which to measure and interpret future climate change impacts on fire weather in Australia.</p>
Beneficiary
Quantification
Description
Evidence
Description
Supervision
Potential Supervision Topics
Analysis of trends in extreme fire weather conditions in Australia
Impact of climate change on prescribed burning windows
Classification of fire activity in Australia and evaluation of fire predictions
Current state of global climate change projections of fire weather
Fire prediction at varying time and seasonal scales
Investigation of drivers of cancelled and escaped prescribed burns
Integrating bushfire and climate change impact research into policy and operations
Advisees
Graduate Advising Relationship
Degree
Research Title
Advisee
Doctor of Philosophy
Effects of climate change on resilience of fire prone plant communities
Simpson-Southward, Harriet
Service
Outreach Overview
I am an executive member of the Australian Academy of Science Early- and Mid-Career Researcher (EMCR) Forum. The EMCR Forum aims to be the voice of young scientists in Australia, working to represent them and ensure optimal career structures and opportunities for them. The Forum is active on a number of fronts, including meetings with Ministers and heads of the NHMRC and ARC, preparing submissions to consultations and inquiries, and running Science Pathways, a semi-annual conference for EMCRS.
I am co-founder of Science at the Local, a community science engagement initiative. We run bimonthly events at Springwood in the Blue Mountains, where scientists present and community members get a chance to ask questions and meet like-minded individuals.
Ph.D.
in Climate science,
University of New South Wales,
Climate Change Research Centre,
The impact of climate change on fire weather conditions and fuel load 2010 - 2015
B.Sc.
in Biochemistry & neuroscience,
The University of Sydney,
With First Class Honours and the University Medal 2002 - 2006
Bachelor of Commerce/Bachelor of Arts (Honours)
in Marketing & accounting / German & Spanish,
University of Technology Sydney1997 - 2001